By, Samuel Issacharoff
In the current global political landscape, democratic nations are facing a daunting challenge – the struggle to find strong and effective political leadership. This challenge is particularly evident on the conservative side of the political spectrum, where parties of the center-right have witnessed the gradual fading of their constituencies and the rise of populist movements that threaten to supplant their political role.
A prime example of this phenomenon can be observed in Germany, where the once-dominant German Christian Democrats now poll below 30% in national elections. Similarly, the French Gaullists claim only 5% of registered voters and were eliminated in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. The Italian Christian Democrats also faced a similar fate, being muscled off the political stage by insurgent populist forces that eventually led to the resignation of the centrist Prime Minister, Mario Draghi. These examples reflect a larger pattern of postwar alliances losing their grip on power, leading to the disappearance of stable political competition.
“The dominant political parties of the postwar period—on both the right and left—have lost their mass base and their ability to project a common mission.”
The left side of the political spectrum also suffers from a lack of vitality. The French Socialist presidential candidate received a meager 1.75% of the vote in the 2022 election and was unceremoniously eliminated. This decline is not limited to one country but extends to dominant political parties across various democracies, both on the right and left. The fact that the once-dominant French Gaullists and Socialists combined received less than 10% of the last presidential vote is a clear signal that the era of stable postwar political competition has come to an end.
A significant contributing factor to this decline is the emergence of independent candidates and the power of social media-fueled campaigns. In the age of digital communication, lone wolves can quickly ascend through independent channels, bypassing traditional party structures. Once in office, these independent leaders find themselves less restrained by party obligations, leading to an erosion of party discipline. Traditional pathways to advancement, such as faithful service as a backbencher or junior committee member, are no longer seen as viable routes to personal success. Moreover, challenging party leadership is no longer perceived as a meaningful roadblock to personal or policy success, contributing to a lack of internal cohesion.
The United States, in particular, has witnessed visible disarray within the Republican Party, but this phenomenon is not unique to them. Democracies worldwide are grappling with a dearth of clear and effective leadership from traditional parties. House Republicans in the US have struggled to select a Speaker and failed to present coherent legislative proposals on critical issues like managing the deficit and immigration, despite having a House majority. Similar struggles can be observed in the United Kingdom, where both Labour and the Tories have repeatedly failed to present cohesive policy frameworks.
“The atrophying of the center-right is destabilizing all western democracies because they are ceding valuable political turf to populism.”
The atrophying of the center-right parties is particularly concerning because they once represented a broad vision, with overlapping constituencies that yielded steady electoral success in the second half of the twentieth century. These parties had deep roots among small entrepreneurs and farmers and were institutionally linked to mainstream churches and local chambers of commerce. They managed to balance conservative social values with individual rights demands. When in power, they exercised fiscal caution while maintaining support for safety nets like national health in Europe and social security and Medicare in the US.
“Demographic changes and cultural estrangement fracture citizens’ relationships with their polities, weaknesses that populists gleefully exploit.”
However, as these parties became unmoored from their institutional bases, their weakened internal discipline had cascading consequences. They lost control over their nominees, becoming less participatory and more susceptible to capture by narrow, minority, or extreme interests within the party. This loss of political coherence translated into inconsistent and substance-less platforms, as evident in the Republican Party in 2020.
As a result, legislative chambers in democratic nations have experienced dysfunction, reflecting the failure of political party leadership. The loss of mass support for traditional parties has left them unable to project a common mission and satisfy the demands of democracy. Parties on the left, relying on trade union traditions, have also faced challenges, as these ties have eroded in the private sector. Correspondingly, parties on the right have lost the social ties that once forged their base of support. The decline of local engagement, symbolized by the decrease in membership in fraternal orders like the Masons or Rotaries, further weakens the democratic process.
Demographic changes and cultural estrangement also play a role in fracturing citizens’ relationships with their political institutions, leaving them vulnerable to populist exploitation. Established parties no longer hold a natural advantage over charismatic demagogues when it comes to rallying against perceived threats from outside.
To address these challenges and protect popular sovereignty, there is a need to reinvigorate political parties and empower their electoral majorities. A healthy democracy relies on partisan competition that presents voters with meaningful choices on policy outcomes. Parties must reflect the aspirations of their constituencies and organize themselves around a coherent vision of governance. Slowing the rise of populism requires a multifaceted approach, including electoral reforms, strengthened party structures, and greater emphasis on effective governance.
In conclusion, the democratic world is facing a profound crisis in finding political leadership. The decline of traditional parties, both on the right and left, and the rise of populism pose significant threats to the stability and effectiveness of democracies. To protect and strengthen popular sovereignty, it is crucial to reinvigorate political parties, restore their connections with their constituencies, and present clear and coherent policy choices to voters. Only through collective efforts and a commitment to democratic values can we overcome these challenges and ensure the resilience and vitality of democratic systems worldwide.
Published by Oxford University Press March 2023
Samuel Issacharoff is the Reiss Professor of Constitutional Law at New York University School of Law. He is a leading figure in the study of democracy, constitutions, and the courts, and the law of democracy in the U.S. He served as a senior legal advisor to the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and is long experienced as an appellate advocate in American courts. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His most recent book is Democracy Unmoored: Populism and the Corruption of Popular Sovereignty, published by Oxford University Press March 2023.