
Asst. Prof. Dr. Sadat Abdulla Aziz, Vice President of the Cihan University-Sulaimaniya, Asst. Prof. Dr. Hastyar Hamarashid Najmuldeen, the Dean of the College of Health Sciences, and Researcher Nozad Hussein Mahmood, the Director of the Biostatistics Consulting Department at the Research Center of the same university, contributed in a recently published paper in “The Lancet,” entitled “Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.” The study highlights Global coverage for original EPI vaccines against diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP1 and DTP3, ie, first and third doses), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries, including declines in 23 of 36 high-income countries for at least one of these vaccine-doses. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series, RotaC), saw continued increases globally during the pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of COVID-19. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3 and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of “zero-dose children”—those presumed not to have received a single vaccine dose—fell by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, but rose during the pandemic, remaining concentrated in conflict-affected, under-resourced regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of zero-dose children resided in just eight countries, emphasising persistent inequities.
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The article can be found at the following link:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01037-2